Thats it relegation to League 2 is finally confirmed.
What are our chances to return at the first attempt?
We have had a look at all the clubs that have been relegated to League 2 over the last twenty years and analysed them to see how they feared.
So in the last twenty years – eighty clubs have been relegated from League 1 – however only twenty-two have returned at the first attempt – 27.5%
Only four clubs have faced the double drop scenario – 5% (Luton, Stockport, Tranmere and Chesterfield)
People say that League 2 is much harder to get out of than when we were last there (2006-07) and they would be correct.
Breaking the twenty years into two sets of ten its clear to see the number of clubs promoted at the first attempt has reduced significantly in the past ten seasons.
Between 1998-2008 – fourteen clubs returned at the first attempt, however between 2008 – 2018 only eight clubs have returned one year after relegation.
We now look at the average position that those relegated teams have finished in.
The average League 2 finish for a relegated side is 12th with an average points tally of 64.
Getting relegated in twenty-second position seems to be the most successful position to end the League 1 season in – with an average League 2 finish of ninth the following year.
The average finish between 1998 – 2008 was 7th, the average finish between 2008 – 2018 was 11th*.
The average points tally between 1998 – 2008 was 68.
The average points tally between 2008 – 2018 was 60.
The most successful season for clubs relegated from League 1 came in 2006/07 (when we won the League 2 title) with all four relegated sides returning to League 1 at the first attempt.
So the stats prove that League 2 is much harder to get out of than when we were last there however we must take some comfort from the League 2 table this season with MK Dons and Bury gaining promotion just one year after relegation.
Get the managerial appointment correct and we could enjoy a more positive season – however one things for sure don’t expect us to win the league like we did in 2006/07, League 2 is not a given anymore.
*Some stats are thrown out as both Stockport and Luton both faced double relegation on a points deduction.